Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1e65c56ae19bac902f04f2655d2feff5775bb6c24de6fd13bfe2fb8807e4b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof REKONIX, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Execration | 45c | 1,526$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.28 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Execration | 45c | 1,099$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…319ebacked Execration | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX | 52c | 940.74$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.4 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed REKONIX | 56c | 799$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Execration | 45c | 765.28$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.27 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked REKONIX | 54c | 731$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.15 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Execration | 47c | 605.14$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.3 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed REKONIX | 56c | 523.68$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed REKONIX | 54c | 501.69$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.79 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked REKONIX | 50c | 500.26$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.52 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed REKONIX | 44c | 300.69$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.9 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked REKONIX | 54c | 278.64$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed REKONIX | 50c | 244.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.19 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Execration | 46c | 234.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Execration | 45c | 210$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…ccbbbacked REKONIX | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 53c | 196.46$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Execration | 46c | 167.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed REKONIX | 70c | 147.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Execration | 47c | 136.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed REKONIX | 52c | 134.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed REKONIX | 59c | 99.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Execration | 57c | 99.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed REKONIX | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed REKONIX | 73c | 95.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed REKONIX | 56c | 91.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked REKONIX | 55c | 87.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Execration | 48c | 80.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked REKONIX | 50c | 75.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked REKONIX | 70c | 67.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed REKONIX | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed REKONIX | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed REKONIX | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked REKONIX | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed REKONIX | 64c | 45.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked REKONIX | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Execration | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5af…afbfbacked Execration | 40c | 31.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed REKONIX | 52c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsREKONIX won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.