La Liga · resolved market
Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1e8b13fd91a2246b11446abc4c58907d5396466a438f9b3458cdff7d192335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,279 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 19c | 2,153$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.39 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 12c | 943.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 14c | 887.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 28c | 857.14$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 757.58$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.62 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 15c | 736.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 20c | 518.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 456.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 80c | 370$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Under | 73c | 264.59$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 11c | 230.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 30c | 128.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 27c | 75.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Over | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 76c | 57.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 34c | 30.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Under | 79c | 28.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Sevilla FC won
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.