South American Leagues · resolved market
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2937d05e0b9fd9b35f491f5f8a32be65e2ced4eeea6f491a03940d3ee633c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 5,416$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 979$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 23c | 666$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 8c | 599.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 77c | 438.31$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 24c | 228.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 12c | 111.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 77c | 99.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…af80backed Under | 79c | 95.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 76c | 79.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 22c | 49.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 79c | 36.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 70c | 28.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.