Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e58caaeae6c4db7d58733146833cdd3eed3c0e48424237246646b5fa38925c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 32c | 553.65$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.48 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 72c | 410.04$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.33 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 27c | 353.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.61 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 32c | 248.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.08 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 70c | 247.87$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.47 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 79c | 102.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 79c | 19.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 14?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 14?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 14?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.