Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89744dd1ea6899e6b642d76b5e65932ca24c422d8cd07436829ab5f47732978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 60c | 2,015$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,801$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.06 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 49c | 1,426$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.19 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 54c | 1,272$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.41 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 45c | 926$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.24 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 799.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 50c | 445.81$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Yes | 43c | 347.27$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 45c | 315.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…8761backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Yes | 54c | 294.52$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…5090backed No | 60c | 199.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Yes | 47c | 124.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547c…0844backed No | 57c | 120.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Yes | 38c | 120.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a3…23ccbacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 49c | 116.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 66c | 100.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…c488backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…09f3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 54c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 61c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 21.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 14?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 14?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 14?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 14?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 14?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.