South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-01-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e5f387d666c793d49d74e6738260732494d35bf3edf9f472d75ad0c23f51d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed No | 78c | 9,441$7,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,378.39 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 21c | 6,277$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,934.06 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 1,833$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Yes | 77c | 1,437$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 52c | 1,332$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 13c | 970$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 736.21$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.06 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 7c | 687.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.02 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 22c | 611.11$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.57 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 20c | 483$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Yes | 21c | 478.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…d69dbacked Yes | 24c | 321$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 301.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked No | 77c | 261.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 248.05$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 26c | 181.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 154.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…7b6fbacked No | 79c | 133.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Yes | 22c | 125.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 122.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked No | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 95.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 20c | 94.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…21fbbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…e7f4backed No | 76c | 60.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Yes | 21c | 48.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 45.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…b35dbacked Yes | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 79cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 59c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…5fa7backed No | 77c | 22.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-01-28?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-01-28?No won
- Will São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.