South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae71d9caf6fb9461172c60e9e3b1071722d41c322ad792ca19ffecc6aa1121d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,045$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.13 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 19c | 827.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 757.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 10c | 609.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 549.25$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 65c | 337.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 58c | 306.81$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 22c | 291.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 25c | 285$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…6657backed No | 70c | 282.71$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 266.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 200.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Yes | 26c | 188.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 184$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 44c | 138.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 74c | 129$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…80f9backed No | 11c | 121.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 11cpaid | +289.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 114.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 32c | 111.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…7320backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 32c | 85.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 45.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 41.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed No | 77c | 41.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1674…93c0backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed No | 73c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-01-28?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-01-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.