Music · resolved market
Will "House Tour" get between 14 and 15 million views in the first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ebc8ff7103c8ea0f61c2b66d05afe9fbe29498c787771c14845c103ddec2244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 15c | 305$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 76c | 250.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 52c | 199.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 62c | 167.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 45c | 165.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…9dd3backed No | 69c | 137.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 23cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 59c | 94.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 84.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 26c | 50.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…2c6dbacked Yes | 30c | 48.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa19…e444backed Yes | 50c | 47.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…162cbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "House Tour" get between 14 and 15 million views in the first week?this page
- Will "House Tour" get 15 million or more views in the first week?No won
- Will "House Tour" get between 12 and 13 million views in the first week?No won
- Will "House Tour" get between 13 and 14 million views in the first week?No won
- Will "House Tour" get less than 11m views in the first week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.