Music · resolved market
Will "House Tour" get between 13 and 14 million views in the first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb052c9a6e32eba545e5b2107cc210f060b9ea5369f53d9c7cda8cf8d66e8925d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 0c | 10,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…ea50backed Yes | 1c | 8,303$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa19…e444backed Yes | 57c | 6,194$3,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,554.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…cca1backed No | 41c | 2,952$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…7ddabacked Yes | 69c | 1,095$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7426…7b6dbacked No | 32c | 1,036$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…bb74backed No | 40c | 827.33$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…a113backed No | 40c | 605.11$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c06…eef7backed Yes | 70c | 592.37$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…03d9backed Yes | 68c | 287.38$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 77c | 268.09$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 150.37$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 60c | 130$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…162cbacked Yes | 34c | 124.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 104.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 23cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…5ddfbacked Yes | 46c | 86.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 42c | 74.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 63.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 79c | 63.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 32c | 57.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3954…4ccabacked Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5d…b090backed Yes | 69c | 34.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 31.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 28.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "House Tour" get between 13 and 14 million views in the first week?this page
- Will "House Tour" get 15 million or more views in the first week?No won
- Will "House Tour" get between 12 and 13 million views in the first week?No won
- Will "House Tour" get between 14 and 15 million views in the first week?Yes won
- Will "House Tour" get less than 11m views in the first week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.