Music · resolved market
Will "House Tour" get 15 million or more views in the first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e0d3a265577108a73a8517be376da0f5ba00514311a0a6b352ba6619fefeba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9df…bb94backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…83dfbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 0c | 10,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed No | 53c | 3,748$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…1515backed Yes | 47c | 3,617$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…ea50backed Yes | 3c | 2,121$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…a113backed Yes | 10c | 1,184$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 77c | 1,074$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…fdb2backed No | 53c | 1,002$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…bb74backed Yes | 21c | 952.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 12c | 874$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…cca1backed Yes | 20c | 843.43$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa19…e444backed No | 54c | 822.51$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…9dd3backed Yes | 36c | 609.06$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…fa95backed Yes | 21c | 474.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 446.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 34c | 442.89$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…ab92backed Yes | 18c | 438.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 43c | 425.91$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…0099backed No | 28c | 411$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca9…233abacked Yes | 48c | 389.45$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed No | 57c | 352.12$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…be34backed No | 37c | 348.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…4af1backed Yes | 71c | 324.97$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 19c | 301.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 64c | 263.02$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 53c | 246.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 238.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 39c | 200.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 37c | 189.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 23c | 166.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…83bcbacked Yes | 71c | 146.63$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed No | 57c | 142.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…7ae8backed Yes | 72c | 138.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 65c | 129.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e5…2a2ebacked Yes | 77c | 116.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 16c | 112.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 27c | 104.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…e60dbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…f4e5backed Yes | 63c | 79.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 76.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 74.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 34c | 73.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 69c | 73.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes | 70c | 71.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 65.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes | 76c | 65.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…d348backed No | 41c | 61.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 60.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 60.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 32c | 55.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 52.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 51.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…03d9backed Yes | 64c | 48.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…45f7backed Yes | 70c | 40.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 41c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…62b3backed No | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 28.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Yes | 50c | 28.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…8a2fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…2fefbacked Yes | 72c | 25.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af3…869dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…094fbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…5650backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "House Tour" get 15 million or more views in the first week?this page
- Will "House Tour" get between 12 and 13 million views in the first week?No won
- Will "House Tour" get between 13 and 14 million views in the first week?No won
- Will "House Tour" get between 14 and 15 million views in the first week?Yes won
- Will "House Tour" get less than 11m views in the first week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.