Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ebca53a6045b0b93cdc8a213e6cfcf5f41ee1c85e671f8ad38becf81d3c521a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,913 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 1,118$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.55 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 80c | 1,100$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 18c | 689.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 497.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 15c | 368.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 74c | 349.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Under | 17c | 244.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 224.65$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 17c | 204.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Over | 79c | 63.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 70c | 48.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Over | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5)Racing Club de Lens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.