Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f29a120aa3ed5a4ab03685e182ef03ed9b1eec153b665e660b0008491ef0c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 17c | 199.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 14c | 194.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 14c | 166$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 18c | 163$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 18c | 133.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 129.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 12c | 125.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 119.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 14c | 117.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 28c | 101.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 34c | 99.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 97.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…9fadbacked Yes | 25c | 93.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 19c | 93.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 13c | 88.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 78.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 73c | 74.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 24c | 69.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 55c | 63.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 77c | 36.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 65c | 25.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…dd1dbacked No | 58c | 20.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 203 | 70%142 W · 61 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.