Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb60edb875d99bf7ea0ba56d4340adcfd26df86ef8883e91ccd8ff412238814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 21c | 789.94$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 29c | 464.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.28 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 68c | 450.34$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 75c | 389.51$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 79c | 307.73$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 32c | 300.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 299.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 24c | 250.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 225.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 212$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 56c | 201.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 31c | 195.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 191.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 71c | 188.09$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 146.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 70c | 137$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 118.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 72c | 97.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 30c | 90.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…12e7backed Yes | 46c | 86.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 75c | 79.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 71c | 74.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 880 | 48%422 W · 458 L | +41.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 74.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 24c | 73.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…e0ffbacked No | 75c | 66.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 30c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 79c | 60.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 77c | 59.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…773cbacked No | 76c | 55.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 19c | 55.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 46.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 44.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 41.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed No | 80c | 37.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 77c | 37.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 75c | 36.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 70c | 28.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 203 | 70%142 W · 61 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 44c | 25.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 269 | 69.5%187 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked No | 76c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 69c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.