Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe362dd57360511280a567c5ef75f42fc77c6f310d18120390d5cbfeef47ab3c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 939.61$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.29 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 55c | 516$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.28 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 38c | 424.77$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.75 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 60c | 354.38$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 50c | 253.1$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 227.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 63c | 223$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 187.93$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 37c | 177.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 56c | 177.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 166.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 66c | 151.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 35c | 143.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…5204backed No | 58c | 134.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 134.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 63c | 123.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 72c | 121.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 119.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 116.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 40c | 116.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 113.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 33c | 111$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 42c | 109.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 101$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 100.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 45c | 98.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 63c | 85.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 36c | 84.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 42c | 82.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 44c | 74.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…773cbacked No | 56c | 73.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 64c | 72.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…e0ffbacked No | 56c | 70.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…12e7backed Yes | 52c | 65.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 62.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 55.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 52c | 53.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 50c | 52.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 40c | 42.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 39c | 36.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 33.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 55c | 32.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 63c | 28.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 203 | 70%142 W · 61 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.