Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f3a32fac483c8d5a5a1afa7e7c4d389e65e58d68ab0e711eb994ab3d9dd828a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marozsanof Tsitsipas, Marozsan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Marozsan | 65c | 2,257$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.37 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tsitsipas | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tsitsipas | 32c | 813.58$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.32 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 746.18$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.02 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas | 35c | 686.85$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Marozsan | 53c | 682.39$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.63 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Tsitsipas | 40c | 499.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Tsitsipas | 9c | 344$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Marozsan | 60c | 341.6$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Tsitsipas | 7c | 246.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tsitsipas | 56c | 202.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tsitsipas | 31c | 194.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Marozsan | 64c | 181.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tsitsipas | 34c | 172.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Marozsan | 63c | 108.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Tsitsipas | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…3d1fbacked Tsitsipas | 37c | 99.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…b244backed Tsitsipas | 41c | 78.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Marozsan | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…f531backed Tsitsipas | 34c | 69.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Tsitsipas | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Marozsan | 66c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Tsitsipas | 38c | 43.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Marozsan | 60c | 31.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Tsitsipas | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Marozsan | 60c | 27.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Tsitsipas | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Marozsan | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Marozsan | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5)this page
- BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos TsitsipasFabian Marozsan won
- Fabian Marozsan vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Marozsan vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Marozsan vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Marozsan vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Marozsan vs. Tsitsipas: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs TsitsipasTsitsipas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.