South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-09-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f57701909909502514e06dd413f5c8ac70b9747ee09560d354c9f9d9692f557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 42c | 2,453$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.32 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 64c | 2,400$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 40c | 899.85$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.51 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked No | 67c | 553$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 39c | 363.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.71 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…5f7dbacked Yes | 60c | 254.58$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Yes | 60c | 251.4$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 55c | 84.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 40c | 60.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…db3dbacked Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 40c | 46.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 59c | 42.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 58c | 32.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…f2e8backed Yes | 52c | 30.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…8d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 39c | 25.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…cd54backed Yes | 60c | 24.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…66afbacked Yes | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-09-23?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2025-09-23?No won
- Will Fluminense FC vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.