Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7558c2cd38986419f95adf84d638dae9df3e1f75be13c80ebfb126f83120d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 16c | 585.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.87 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 34c | 448.49$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 433.92$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.96 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 43c | 416.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.99 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 20c | 350.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.75 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 22c | 228.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 53c | 210$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 21c | 138.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 19c | 69.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 76c | 48.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 72c | 21.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?this page
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-08-22?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.