NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f998526a85456c91fa104d9e8ceb1395430e2d7b3b3f47b05cc44acb914d1c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Oilers, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2cf…a6bcbacked Sabres | 64c | 25,100$16,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,036 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…ecc9backed Oilers | 36c | 20,600$7,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,416 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…48b5backed Oilers | 36c | 4,500$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Sabres | 63c | 167$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Sabres | 66c | 159.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Oilers | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oilers | 36c | 117.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Sabres | 64c | 107$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Sabres | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Oilers | 35c | 80.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Sabres | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Oilers | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Sabres | 65c | 55.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Oilers | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Sabres | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Oilers | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Oilers | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Oilers | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Oilers | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Sabres | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sabres | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Oilers | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Sabres | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Oilers | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Oilers | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Oilers | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sabres | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…f85bbacked Sabres | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Sabres | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. SabresSabres won
- Oilers vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.