NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88bf5371a54788475c4cb2822d92770fb53e4c70d22e20cc2ce1f2d7479eafb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 50c | 6,003$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.5 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511.45 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,753$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.15 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,958$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.86 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 1,594$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.28 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 52c | 1,366$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.32 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,029$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.12 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 905.54$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.33 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 51c | 538.27$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 431$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.77 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…dcefbacked Under | 43c | 360.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 49c | 357.14$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.14 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 51c | 352.2$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.62 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 51c | 111.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 111.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 48c | 101$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 93.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 53c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Over | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…9761backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Under | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Oilers vs. SabresSabres won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.