Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb368763a0a84dc4ac28ebc7928ab5b135c023c1bb17617347f8778e99c0b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 59c | 1,109$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…246ebacked Yes | 43c | 530.9$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 62c | 461.03$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.59 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 41c | 259.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 221.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 198.53$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 44c | 192.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 177.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 164.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 44c | 162.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 19c | 134.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…111ebacked Yes | 61c | 121.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 22c | 101.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 79c | 100.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 100.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 58c | 97.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 19c | 97.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 30c | 83.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 66c | 73.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 68c | 70.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 62.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 59.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 50c | 57.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 55c | 53.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 36c | 51.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 47.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 52c | 45.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 51c | 44.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 45c | 44.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…bd68backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 43.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 55c | 39.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 38.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5541backed No | 71c | 38.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 37.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 37.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadb…41a3backed Yes | 29c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 32c | 36.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 34.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 45c | 34.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 59c | 33.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked No | 65c | 33.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 70c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 78c | 28.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 51c | 28.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 47c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 44c | 27.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8f…637ebacked Yes | 59c | 27.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 43c | 27.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 53c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 66c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 50c | 19.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 77c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 58c | 17.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.