Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9233428f9d4c0eb7ce435864755f14d68caf4bc25a2a797ecc1230235667f98a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 302.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 28c | 267.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.66 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 48c | 261.25$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 249.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 26c | 184.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 182.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…08d5backed No | 11c | 181.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 59c | 163.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 96.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…111ebacked Yes | 30c | 92.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 92.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 90.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 66c | 76.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 72.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 71c | 72.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 69c | 70.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 48c | 68.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 63.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 27c | 61.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 24c | 61.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 58.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…4664backed Yes | 22c | 48.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…246ebacked Yes | 29c | 48.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 47.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 75c | 44.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 41.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 36c | 40.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 27c | 40.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 73c | 40.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 77c | 39.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 38.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 55c | 38.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 31c | 36.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…dfaebacked No | 69c | 31.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed Yes | 49c | 29.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 53c | 28.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 48c | 28.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 49c | 26.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 26.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 49c | 23.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 23.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…b82ebacked No | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 64c | 20.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…c3f9backed No | 71c | 17.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 74cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.