Fifa International · resolved market
Will Scotland vs. Greece end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc28787ff004621a8a4ee8f7d53c1b46b9fa8801086f822f1dea0cc0982ca59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 70c | 20,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 14,571$4,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,348.83 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 30c | 4,310$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.9 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 1,818$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.36 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 25c | 1,028$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.48 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…2be0backed Yes | 52c | 963.47$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…d383backed Yes | 42c | 354.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 51c | 312.37$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.79 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 41c | 295.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 30c | 280$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 67c | 260.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…0932backed Yes | 65c | 209.1$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed No | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 33c | 163.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 38c | 152.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Yes | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 39c | 141.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 35c | 136.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 122.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2710…b906backed Yes | 62c | 80.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…f769backed Yes | 31c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 31c | 56.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 80c | 51.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…dd70backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 68c | 42.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Yes | 30c | 41.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…8449backed Yes | 38c | 35.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scotland vs. Greece end in a draw?this page
- Will Greece win on 2025-10-09?No won
- Will Scotland win on 2025-10-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.