UFC · resolved market
Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc9bb5aaf5c639c41257cd143b88809b7ea9ab3d294b4e7638e5bca8e6e8add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 33c | 1,235$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.28 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…4354backed Yes | 66c | 1,059$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…13f5backed Yes | 67c | 519.12$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 31c | 483.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 34c | 260.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.79 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 35c | 200$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…b07abacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…1f65backed Yes | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…543cbacked Yes | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…68d7backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Yes | 66c | 34.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…26b3backed Yes | 65c | 31.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa702…850fbacked Yes | 71c | 19.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…c058backed Yes | 66c | 19.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)Jamall Emmers won
- Will Jamall Emmers win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.