UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf38b8f4859e15449ab4bbf3f46d9f515f2800b5f3143388b5a01b2ea2401d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 41c | 17,153$7,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,025.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Under | 59c | 5,180$3,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 56c | 4,405$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.08 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 44c | 3,381$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.64 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 59c | 2,797$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.61 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Under | 59c | 2,186$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 2,177$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.92 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…5280backed Under | 59c | 1,560$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…864bbacked Under | 59c | 1,357$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 44c | 1,001$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 820.05$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.34 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…5e18backed Under | 56c | 782.14$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Over | 48c | 747.88$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.98 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 45c | 619$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.55 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…03efbacked Under | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Under | 56c | 573.08$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.17 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1b…65d7backed Under | 59c | 525.42$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Under | 56c | 511.24$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.95 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 53c | 367.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969e…b834backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…4b17backed Under | 57c | 353.67$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…fb36backed Under | 59c | 322$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 42c | 285$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 45c | 280.63$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Under | 59c | 270$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 56c | 228.57$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…4f7cbacked Under | 59c | 179.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…e9f8backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6109…0baabacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 55c | 161.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 44c | 139.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Under | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 40c | 65.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Over | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…a9cbbacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 59c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)Jamall Emmers won
- Will Jamall Emmers win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.