College Football · resolved market
Spread: South Florida (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fcbff80cbcc2bf3c839fd5bb8bd2a523249bf1a220f56419eb8714086717695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Memphisof South Florida, Memphis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Memphis | 51c | 11,767$5,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,777.59 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed South Florida | 49c | 5,010$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.9 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed South Florida | 49c | 4,081$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.69 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed South Florida | 54c | 1,545$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.21 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Memphis | 46c | 1,544$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked South Florida | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked South Florida | 49c | 800.82$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.63 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked South Florida | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Memphis | 49c | 323.64$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.06 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked South Florida | 47c | 251$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed South Florida | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed South Florida | 47c | 165$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked South Florida | 51c | 148.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked South Florida | 42c | 100.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Memphis | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Memphis | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Memphis | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Florida (-5.5)this page
- South Florida vs. MemphisMemphis won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 58.5Over won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 61.5Over won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 62.5Over won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 63.5Over won
- Spread: South Florida (-4.5)Memphis won
- Spread: South Florida (-6.5)Memphis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.