College Football · resolved market
Spread: South Florida (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x770ecfc5058890fb359e53d59bcc6de26a0280f0b1519076a1820bac8d40a779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Memphisof South Florida, Memphis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Memphis | 51c | 12,600$6,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,174 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed South Florida | 49c | 12,367$6,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,059.81 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed South Florida | 44c | 5,609$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.75 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Memphis | 57c | 4,632$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.58 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Memphis | 50c | 2,007$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked South Florida | 73c | 1,474$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.07 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Memphis | 27c | 983.07$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.64 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed South Florida | 50c | 684$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Memphis | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed South Florida | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked South Florida | 50c | 205.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked South Florida | 51c | 86.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked South Florida | 42c | 52.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Memphis | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed South Florida | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…de3abacked South Florida | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed South Florida | 61c | 19.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Florida (-4.5)this page
- South Florida vs. MemphisMemphis won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 58.5Over won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 61.5Over won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 62.5Over won
- South Florida vs. Memphis: O/U 63.5Over won
- Spread: South Florida (-5.5)Memphis won
- Spread: South Florida (-6.5)Memphis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.