MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fe5a18b7393b04fd30ab9fb750feb12fa17d5e80ea9f76bdadc809924a64186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Under | 54c | 2,144$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.07 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 19c | 1,548$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.81 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 45c | 1,021$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.33 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 55c | 973$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 674.98$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 645.39$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.88 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Over | 46c | 420.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 46c | 317.2$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 20c | 199.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 186.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 77.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 57c | 66.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 56c | 46.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 46.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 57c | 28.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.