MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x067681dbedf74e3b3f63ae417a8efbc04c16238b785c3e1c816e0304fdd73eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 51c | 2,004$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Yes | 55c | 1,055$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.65 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 49c | 1,038$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.69 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Yes | 49c | 1,009$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.57 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 595.09$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.79 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Yes | 51c | 454.59$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.75 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 47c | 199.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 49c | 196.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 52c | 194.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 54c | 174.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 49c | 170.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed No | 46c | 169.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 45c | 153.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 49c | 105.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Yes | 53c | 82.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Yes | 53c | 80.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 49c | 73.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Yes | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed No | 52c | 57.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed No | 52c | 55.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…8c2ebacked Yes | 50c | 48.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed No | 51c | 48.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…4b86backed Yes | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 51c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 767 | 52.3%401 W · 366 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked No | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked No | 50c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…22f4backed No | 52c | 19.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.