Token Launches · resolved market
Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500a02e035d6a1125e940c494f452974de187ae7261f3bf607b05374583ebbb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 8,683$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…b808backed Yes | 8c | 2,360$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…8691backed Yes | 5c | 2,360$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,788$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,086$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +900%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7a…6524backed Yes | 7c | 1,061$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…8a09backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…5eb1backed Yes | 8c | 542.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddab…f312backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 7c | 478.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…39c6backed Yes | 8c | 420$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 9c | 340$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…87acbacked Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 10c | 148.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c52…54fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.