Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5010bbba6f1319a899d8bbdbf91896a9f43c49ac65f961d10b5f8fbf3e0a77fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atalanta BCof Olympique de Marseille, Atalanta BC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Olympique de Marseille | 41c | 2,270$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.5 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Atalanta BC | 59c | 2,130$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.05 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Olympique de Marseille | 40c | 1,131$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.81 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed Atalanta BC | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Atalanta BC | 57c | 483.48$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Olympique de Marseille | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Atalanta BC | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…2bc1backed Atalanta BC | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bdc6backed Atalanta BC | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…49aabacked Atalanta BC | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Atalanta BC | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed Atalanta BC | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Atalanta BC | 54c | 26.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…9165backed Atalanta BC | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-0.5)this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.