Tennis · resolved market
ITF Karuizawa: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Kosuke Ogura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5041af6f1e07f7465a2f7278a5317b7d676817f358341f58bd10a38cc97efe2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hikaru Shiraishiof Hikaru Shiraishi, Kosuke Ogura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Kosuke Ogura | 23c | 607$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 75c | 295.76$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Kosuke Ogura | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 79c | 131.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Kosuke Ogura | 40c | 83.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 69c | 74.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Kosuke Ogura | 42c | 72.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 25c | 70.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…49febacked Kosuke Ogura | 37c | 54.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 58c | 39.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Kosuke Ogura | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…cb2fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…8ac5backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.