Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x505668a8c5a6a1b5f94edb9422a1928174f447bbcc2d62af6faed256775c3f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 985.37$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 322.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 290.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 230$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 209.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 14c | 186.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 149.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 21c | 116.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 26c | 113.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 13c | 100.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 98.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 20c | 94.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…9f40backed Yes | 30c | 87.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…b2c7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 19c | 59.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 53.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…22ddbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 47.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 69c | 43.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…d340backed Yes | 27c | 42.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 39c | 34.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 34.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 33.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed No | 73c | 32.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 77c | 32.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 36c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…7b9abacked No | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…6996backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 72cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.