Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8647b5401ad19ad86a6ca0dfc4e7eac54b078eef6d032e65e9e4d240521cbbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 720.75$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 378.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 33c | 368.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 64c | 341.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 320.24$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 26c | 284.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 260.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 21c | 260.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 48c | 167.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 14c | 124.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 122.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 120.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 61c | 112.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 109$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 79c | 106.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 14c | 101.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 99.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 73c | 84.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed No | 67c | 75.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 64c | 74.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 71.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 58.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 21c | 54.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 19c | 53.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 30c | 51.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 47.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 37c | 40.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 40.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 63c | 39.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 39c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 34.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 74c | 33.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 32.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 31.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 27.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 58c | 27.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 58c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…7ac0backed No | 65c | 24.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 68c | 24.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 60c | 22.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 64c | 20.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 20.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.