Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5089cc5e65190773a9f9a506e244e53dda5b5040851b4b68334f45a5bb7b3a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 75c | 2,410$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 1,149$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.83 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 25c | 749.28$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.32 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 690.87$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.33 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 574.28$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 25c | 550.59$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.65 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 25c | 374.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 18c | 309$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked Under | 27c | 87.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Under | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 76c | 41.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 73c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.