Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c24f541a36b72549681db50766548bd7f6b31d5daa0e151cfccf8638e6c16c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 1,900$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.26 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 9c | 1,250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.5 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,084$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.12 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 47c | 1,068$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 5c | 380.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 299.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Under | 44c | 206.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 23c | 170.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6a44backed Under | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 58c | 76.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 47.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0430…530abacked Under | 32c | 38.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 54c | 30.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 59c | 25.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 73c | 23.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 53c | 22.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.