Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52bf26555f48a656d3a7f5ba524d647d861e9534edd5df8c7f024bf09b6b0171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 50c | 3,924$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 47c | 3,749$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.06 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,254$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.27 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 50c | 1,658$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Over | 50c | 1,644$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,388$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.84 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 51c | 1,053$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 52c | 966$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 826.34$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.11 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 700$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 43c | 561.79$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 553.79$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.21 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 50c | 501.02$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 364.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 108.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 51c | 101.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Under | 52c | 83.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f0…7e1ebacked Over | 79c | 80.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 77.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Over | 52c | 76.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 58c | 69.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…3767backed Under | 49c | 54.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 52c | 31.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabe…76e1backed Under | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x96d1…4b1dbacked Over | 51c | 26.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 25.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…eaf6backed Under | 50c | 25.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…8051backed Over | 51c | 23.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Under | 52c | 22.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…20d4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.