Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9ff6f7d87aba6100802162b588decebee33f0d648c34628304d044549ed255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toulouse FCof Toulouse FC, OGC Nice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed OGC Nice | 28c | 24,888$6,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,919.67 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toulouse FC | 78c | 24,263$18,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,318.6 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Toulouse FC | 25c | 3,506$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed OGC Nice | 75c | 3,506$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Toulouse FC | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked OGC Nice | 27c | 925$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Toulouse FC | 25c | 605.35$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.82 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed OGC Nice | 67c | 423.83$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.74 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked OGC Nice | 36c | 110.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Toulouse FC | 23c | 84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf917…0482backed Toulouse FC | 26c | 53.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Toulouse FC | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Toulouse FC | 25c | 48.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed OGC Nice | 74c | 30.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked OGC Nice | 77c | 29.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked OGC Nice | 77c | 28.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabe…76e1backed OGC Nice | 76c | 17.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…def1backed OGC Nice | 76c | 16.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…ad25backed OGC Nice | 76c | 15.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…eda8backed OGC Nice | 76c | 15.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed OGC Nice | 74c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ef…6bf9backed OGC Nice | 75c | 13.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)this page
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.