Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9930dda034f52d534b138b111bdc2db19c9cce5181c7da91b6e9ae3de4129a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 54,587$24,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,012.13 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 53,730$30,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,662.84 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Yes | 55c | 537.31$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 53c | 429.55$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.32 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Yes | 68c | 294.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 44c | 127.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 54c | 114$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ce…2414backed Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 61c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 41c | 67.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked No | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked No | 45c | 56.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…7a1abacked No | 38c | 53.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…8fbabacked Yes | 57c | 48.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x936d…0886backed No | 48c | 27.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed No | 49c | 26.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4045backed No | 80c | 23.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 50c | 22.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d1…4b1dbacked No | 47c | 22.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Yes | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.