Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x509e0db67b06e0c612e95e0c101f323d08c63b998fa730cb4aa3045f2df3eb26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Jodar, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43eb…cf57backed Arnaldi | 50c | 3,100$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed Jodar | 54c | 2,304$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.26 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Jodar | 57c | 2,084$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Arnaldi | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Jodar | 54c | 1,922$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.9 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jodar | 50c | 1,607$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.35 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Arnaldi | 47c | 1,303$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Arnaldi | 46c | 1,124$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.77 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Arnaldi | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Jodar | 53c | 683.96$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Arnaldi | 45c | 590.65$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.47 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Jodar | 53c | 544.23$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Jodar | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Arnaldi | 50c | 457.82$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.82 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jodar | 52c | 418.29$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.51 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Jodar | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Jodar | 54c | 311.19$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.04 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…fd33backed Arnaldi | 47c | 235$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Jodar | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Jodar | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Arnaldi | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Arnaldi | 44c | 190.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…e44ebacked Jodar | 56c | 172.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Arnaldi | 48c | 162.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 119 | 19.3%23 W · 96 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Jodar | 57c | 158.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Arnaldi | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Arnaldi | 45c | 127.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Arnaldi | 45c | 115.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…4cc4backed Arnaldi | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Arnaldi | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arnaldi | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Jodar | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Arnaldi | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Jodar | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Arnaldi | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Arnaldi | 60c | 85.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…330fbacked Arnaldi | 46c | 84.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Jodar | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Arnaldi | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Arnaldi | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Arnaldi | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Arnaldi | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Jodar | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Arnaldi | 54c | 61.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Arnaldi | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Arnaldi | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…5a4fbacked Jodar | 56c | 43.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Jodar | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cef…4a8cbacked Jodar | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…de42backed Jodar | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…327bbacked Arnaldi | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Jodar | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 167 | 18.6%31 W · 136 L | -23.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Arnaldi | 46c | 30.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Jodar | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Jodar | 56c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Jodar | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)this page
- Arnaldi vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar won
- Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs JodarJodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.