Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5125da7e010231ad62d0874b00d2f3abe5086e2168d14a38f94f86fff825dac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, USC Trojans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57a8…6933backed USC Trojans | 48c | 7,000$3,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,335 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 1,999$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.31 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked USC Trojans | 47c | 1,442$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.32 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked USC Trojans | 46c | 510.95$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 507.63$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.53 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed USC Trojans | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked USC Trojans | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 57c | 171.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed USC Trojans | 49c | 136.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 131.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked USC Trojans | 47c | 94.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed USC Trojans | 48c | 67.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC Trojans | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed USC Trojans | 45c | 25.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 25.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-11.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- USC Trojans vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- USC Trojans vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 150.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.