Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
USC Trojans vs. Michigan State Spartans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08036dc0b8561810181318bc340283a003820856a294d18f6af10e909026914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof USC Trojans, Michigan State Spartans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked USC Trojans | 1c | 3,568$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked USC Trojans | 10c | 2,251$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.04 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed USC Trojans | 1c | 1,526$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked USC Trojans | 10c | 926$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed USC Trojans | 16c | 757.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed USC Trojans | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed USC Trojans | 10c | 510.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed USC Trojans | 9c | 509.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed USC Trojans | 10c | 404.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed USC Trojans | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 39.5%45 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked USC Trojans | 15c | 332.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed USC Trojans | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed USC Trojans | 17c | 287.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked USC Trojans | 14c | 247.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 181 | 29.3%53 W · 128 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked USC Trojans | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked USC Trojans | 17c | 199$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b55…1e67backed USC Trojans | 17c | 180.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…f229backed USC Trojans | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 80c | 165.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked USC Trojans | 14c | 135.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…7c66backed USC Trojans | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked USC Trojans | 8c | 128$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked USC Trojans | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked USC Trojans | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed USC Trojans | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Michigan State Spartans | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Michigan State Spartans | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USC Trojans vs. Michigan State Spartansthis page
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-10.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-11.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- USC Trojans vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 150.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.