Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Teodora Kostovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5129a2db0eb7408a4478a1298cc0d8ac64379c3eebb0815bcf41aabe20373868
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Teodora Kostovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Teodora Kostovic | 5c | 12,869$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.43 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Teodora Kostovic | 0c | 9,976$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Teodora Kostovic | 1c | 9,317$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Teodora Kostovic | 6c | 8,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 168 | 25%42 W · 126 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Teodora Kostovic | 1c | 6,902$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Teodora Kostovic | 6c | 6,650$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 334 | 38.6%129 W · 205 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Teodora Kostovic | 2c | 6,619$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Teodora Kostovic | 5c | 6,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Teodora Kostovic | 1c | 6,363$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 450 | 36%162 W · 288 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Teodora Kostovic | 6c | 4,170$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.15 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Teodora Kostovic | 1c | 3,475$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Teodora Kostovic | 1c | 2,855$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Teodora Kostovic | 2c | 1,765$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Teodora Kostovic | 3c | 1,672$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Teodora Kostovic | 2c | 1,434$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Teodora Kostovic | 5c | 666.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Teodora Kostovic | 6c | 571.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…836abacked Teodora Kostovic | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Teodora Kostovic | 2c | 470.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Teodora Kostovic | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Teodora Kostovic | 6c | 190.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.