La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x516106afc95f12f0e660e3000cca4efd514cb7874c3ac9bba8e693c02f78dc49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,470$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.3 | 196 | 62.8%123 W · 73 L | +20.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 28c | 1,438$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 1,392$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.74 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 32c | 658.47$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.51 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 524.39$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.53 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 69c | 394.28$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 28c | 355.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 29c | 344.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -11.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 31c | 330$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 72c | 240.13$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 183$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 36c | 174.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 164.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 73c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 99.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked No | 73c | 93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 72c | 83.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 746 | 57.4%428 W · 318 L | +22.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 32c | 71.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…4a49backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…c3f4backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…7bb3backed Yes | 28c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 57.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 29c | 52.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 69c | 51.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 70c | 46.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 72c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.