La Liga · resolved market
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7207b9d2780cc97e54638b21839dda1752a9ebcf2cb0947dd4359b290a078579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 674.9$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.56 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 60c | 577.31$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.36 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 8c | 553.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 40c | 548.72$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.23 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 60c | 372.16$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.4 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 58c | 261$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 41c | 243.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 76c | 237.07$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -11.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 10c | 232.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 66c | 198$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 196 | 62.8%123 W · 73 L | +20.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 77c | 198$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 23c | 183$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 59c | 159.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 58c | 142$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 136.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 40c | 123$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 58c | 96.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed No | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 23c | 90.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 25c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…f32fbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 59c | 78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 32c | 62.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 36c | 61.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Yes | 67c | 49.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 61c | 49.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccd…8ae1backed Yes | 39c | 49.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…1147backed Yes | 79c | 45.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 61c | 33.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2f18backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 60c | 30.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…6df0backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…b33dbacked Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.