CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x517baaceb89c972782757b581e9515218407c36f0aefe027da83bed0791a8ec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof FUT Esports, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,365 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports | 39c | 2,500$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.99 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…31ebbacked Astralis | 62c | 1,700$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…e1f2backed FUT Esports | 27c | 1,004$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.46 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Astralis | 62c | 962.76$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.85 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Astralis | 64c | 885.95$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.96 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Astralis | 59c | 834.05$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.96 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…f05cbacked Astralis | 73c | 800$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Astralis | 62c | 640.73$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.48 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…9eeabacked Astralis | 59c | 588.55$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.96 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked FUT Esports | 38c | 472.37$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked FUT Esports | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 319 | 33.5%107 W · 212 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked FUT Esports | 38c | 354.13$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…025abacked FUT Esports | 42c | 333$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed FUT Esports | 38c | 202.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed FUT Esports | 35c | 155$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis | 73c | 123.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…df3cbacked Astralis | 71c | 97.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed Astralis | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…db9dbacked Astralis | 73c | 54.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Astralis | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked FUT Esports | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 251 | 43.8%110 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked FUT Esports | 36c | 49.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6234…15c9backed FUT Esports | 38c | 44.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Astralis | 62c | 43.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Astralis | 61c | 42.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…5491backed FUT Esports | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Astralis | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FUT Esports | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Astralis | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Astralis | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 199 | 35.7%71 W · 128 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Astralis won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.