TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim Red Forceof Nongshim Red Force, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX73c1,533$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.911,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Nongshim Red Force29c1,348$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.7743640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0359…fda7backed Nongshim Red Force27c1,062$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.584344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Nongshim Red Force24c999.95$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.9647047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked BNK FEARX74c952.91$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.1221844%96 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed BNK FEARX70c420.86$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.612341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed BNK FEARX45c245.76$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5235054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked BNK FEARX70c214.64$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2533139.9%132 W · 199 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Nongshim Red Force20c211.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1692,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x472d…942cbacked BNK FEARX80c208.72$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.97666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ad…0c4cbacked BNK FEARX76c191.93$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.873063.3%19 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed BNK FEARX76c147.26$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.918627.9%24 W · 62 L-13.2wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed BNK FEARX77c127.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6418752.4%98 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Nongshim Red Force25c110$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.51,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x230a…b8aabacked BNK FEARX58c100.84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.495362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked BNK FEARX76c72.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4884360.1%507 W · 336 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Nongshim Red Force42c58.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3420445.1%92 W · 112 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2637…3db0backed Nongshim Red Force54c54.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.852850%14 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed BNK FEARX76c52.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.128633.7%29 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4c8…86b4backed Nongshim Red Force24c50.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2919157.1%109 W · 82 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Nongshim Red Force23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.531650.3%159 W · 157 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Nongshim Red Force23c49.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4953954.7%295 W · 244 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1752…682bbacked Nongshim Red Force27c49.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.836737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b1…812bbacked BNK FEARX56c40.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Nongshim Red Force48c39.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.475942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a6…ad64backed BNK FEARX52c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed BNK FEARX36c30.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1724251.7%125 W · 117 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c64…929abacked Nongshim Red Force44c28.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2316668.7%114 W · 52 L+22.2wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+18.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed BNK FEARX74c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7232941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed BNK FEARX58c21.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5850647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…9798backed Nongshim Red Force54c21.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1318640.9%76 W · 110 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed BNK FEARX70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed BNK FEARX76c17.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6586144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked BNK FEARX77c15.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0622142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked BNK FEARX71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6518263.7%116 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ff…b4dabacked BNK FEARX76c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.646968.1%47 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked BNK FEARX79c13.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4834945.6%159 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.