Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Austria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5181e3f88e68f8ba70b20665b92408a4a9653b488812574e44f92e205562b3d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guernseyof Guernsey, Austria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Austria | 41c | 1,829$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.37 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Austria | 15c | 1,509$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.75 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Austria | 20c | 1,048$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Austria | 3c | 828.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 639 | 46.5%297 W · 342 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Guernsey | 74c | 672.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.96 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Guernsey | 68c | 658$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.11 | 325 | 40.9%133 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Austria | 7c | 619.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 432 | 44.2%191 W · 241 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Austria | 22c | 603.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 573 | 37.3%214 W · 359 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…d3b2backed Austria | 34c | 499.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 179 | 35.8%64 W · 115 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Austria | 21c | 435.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 682 | 31.2%213 W · 469 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Austria | 30c | 394.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad4…f62bbacked Austria | 40c | 382.13$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Guernsey | 58c | 353.21$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Guernsey | 73c | 340.01$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 442 | 41%181 W · 261 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Austria | 15c | 288.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…8181backed Guernsey | 62c | 162.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Guernsey | 49c | 136.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | +16.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x127d…f4dbbacked Guernsey | 74c | 134.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Guernsey | 77c | 130.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Austria | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Austria | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Guernsey | 80c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be2…d345backed Guernsey | 62c | 80.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…14ffbacked Guernsey | 70c | 71.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Guernsey | 61c | 65.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Austria | 46c | 54.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…a64cbacked Guernsey | 58c | 50.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Guernsey | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…6c94backed Austria | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Guernsey | 79c | 39.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 658 | 50.9%335 W · 323 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f1a8backed Guernsey | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…1833backed Guernsey | 72c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Guernsey | 71c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 427 | 47.8%204 W · 223 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Guernsey | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Guernsey | 59c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.