Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51848c7b7d22bb0aaef687740f978d9deae1f2febca3820365fe850000cfc22b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 1,185$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.21 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,133$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 715.51$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked No | 71c | 666.84$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.38 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 538.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 522.14$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Yes | 10c | 499.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 349.43$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 347.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 27c | 329.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Yes | 36c | 277.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 188.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…2130backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 77c | 133.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 72c | 122$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a2…505cbacked Yes | 34c | 109.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 102.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…aaa3backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 24c | 84.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…1e9abacked Yes | 20c | 78.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +230%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 72c | 51.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…4cb8backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…580fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed No | 72c | 35.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 161 | 36.6%59 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…491cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 68c | 23.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 307 | 39.4%121 W · 186 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 72c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester City FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-29?No won
- Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-12-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.