CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5188e825ef351e49ea6a03a9b3c8854734c6fd43c162f687d3659e629e2a0883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Just Playersof Just Players, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 67c | 2,943$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.6 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Just Players | 35c | 2,191$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.86 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Ursa | 26c | 776.53$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Ursa | 55c | 495.19$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.99 | 298 | 51.3%153 W · 145 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Just Players | 39c | 450.91$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.27 | 286 | 60.1%172 W · 114 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4857backed Just Players | 41c | 444.68$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Ursa | 58c | 375.61$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.8 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Just Players | 43c | 342.86$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Just Players | 42c | 316.69$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Ursa | 59c | 315.04$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.88 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked Just Players | 43c | 272.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Just Players | 42c | 183.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…b93dbacked Just Players | 42c | 183.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Just Players | 42c | 174.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 217 | 52.5%114 W · 103 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ursa | 23c | 154.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ursa | 58c | 141.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 56c | 136.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed Ursa | 59c | 117.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Just Players | 78c | 115.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Just Players | 42c | 91.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Just Players | 43c | 91.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d5…7c98backed Just Players | 26c | 88.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Just Players | 60c | 79.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…ca10backed Ursa | 79c | 74.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Ursa | 34c | 74.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Just Players | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Just Players | 58c | 48.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Just Players | 29c | 45.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Just Players | 49c | 39.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Just Players | 43c | 37.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 394 | 40.4%159 W · 235 L | +30.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Just Players | 42c | 31.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Just Players | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Just Players | 65c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Just Players | 50c | 23.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Ursa | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 398 | 40.5%161 W · 237 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Just Players | 48c | 21.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 52c | 20.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Ursa | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked Ursa | 65c | 17.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.