Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51b0fbc51082746524159503986edcfaeb269f9aa35a4849a532bd8b43ceb805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8466…0f1ebacked Yes | 49c | 37,834$18,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,538.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f01…f12abacked No | 51c | 37,834$19,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,538.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…0cb6backed Yes | 48c | 30,887$14,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,825.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…b598backed No | 52c | 30,887$16,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,825.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…651ebacked No | 54c | 26,817$14,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,335.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7910…0224backed Yes | 46c | 26,817$12,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,335.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 51c | 683.58$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.35 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…3d6cbacked Yes | 49c | 520$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 61c | 504.7$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 197 | 35.5%70 W · 127 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…96a4backed Yes | 49c | 501.2$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed No | 54c | 331.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Yes | 47c | 251.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 56c | 196.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…f733backed No | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 46c | 142.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…eb22backed No | 67c | 76.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 56c | 46.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…4184backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…245abacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?this page
- Will Arsenal qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Chelsea qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Manchester United qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?No won
- Will Newcastle qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?No won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.